MANILA, Philippines — Despite the possibility of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, concerns over rising fuel prices persist, with officials warning that the cost of oil may continue to climb.

According to Sharon Garin, even if tensions ease, fuel prices are unlikely to stabilize immediately. She explained that the global oil market is influenced by multiple factors beyond active conflict, including damage to oil infrastructure, supply disruptions, and lingering uncertainty in key producing regions. These issues take time to resolve, meaning that any relief from a ceasefire may not be felt right away by consumers.

Garin further warned that a worst-case scenario could see diesel prices rise to as much as ₱200 per liter if the impact of the Middle East crisis continues to strain supply. This projection remains possible even if global crude prices fall below $100 per barrel, highlighting how local fuel prices are shaped not only by raw oil costs but also by refining, distribution, and market speculation.

The statement underscores the vulnerability of countries heavily dependent on imported fuel, such as the Philippines. While global developments may signal positive shifts, their local effects are often delayed or uneven. This disconnect creates uncertainty for both consumers and industries that rely on stable energy costs.

Beyond the immediate concern of rising prices, the situation raises deeper questions about energy resilience and long-term planning. Temporary geopolitical calm does not necessarily translate to economic stability, especially when structural issues in supply chains remain unresolved.

As the possibility of higher fuel prices looms, one question stands out: Are we prepared for a future where global crises continue to dictate local fuel costs, or is it time to rethink our energy dependence altogether?

(Larawan mula: Dublin Analytical)