APRIL 27, 2026 — Vice President Sara Duterte still leads the race for 2028 with 46%, but Leni Robredo’s surge to 35% in the latest OCTA survey signals a tightening contest that could reshape the political landscape. With 19% undecided, the numbers reveal a volatile electorate that could swing either way.

The OCTA Tugon ng Masa Q1 2026 survey conducted March 19–25 shows Duterte ahead nationally, but her margin over Robredo has shrunk compared to past surveys where she enjoyed leads of 20–30 points. 

Duterte’s Mindanao base remains overwhelming at 88%, while she also commands majority support in the Visayas at 53%. Robredo, on the other hand, dominates Metro Manila with 52% and Balance Luzon with 47%, areas that are both vote-rich and politically strategic.

By socioeconomic class, Duterte leads across the board, strongest among Class E voters at 56%, while Robredo finds her best footing among Class ABC at 39%. This divide underscores the familiar narrative: Duterte’s populist appeal resonates with poorer households, while Robredo’s support is concentrated in urban, middle-class circles.

The 19% undecided voters are the real wild card. OCTA itself noted that “nearly one in five respondents remain uncommitted, indicating that a substantial segment of the electorate remains open to persuasion.” 

In a race this close, that bloc could decide the outcome.

Now here’s the twist: Robredo has repeatedly said she won’t run for president in 2028, insisting she will seek reelection as Naga City mayor. Yet her rising numbers suggest that many Pinoys still see her as a viable national contender. 

This paradox raises a crucial question — If she truly stays local, who will carry the torch for the opposition?

Duterte announced her presidential bid in February, but her numbers have shown signs of softening. She remains formidable, but impeachment complaints and controversies over confidential funds and bank transactions have dented her image. Even with her southern stronghold, she faces skepticism in NCR and Luzon, where Robredo is gaining ground.

This survey is more than just numbers — it’s about choices and accountability. A Duterte presidency promises continuity of dynasty politics, while a Robredo candidacy (if she changes her mind) offers reformist appeal. The undecided bloc reflects a hunger for clarity, honesty, and leadership that speaks to everyday struggles.

With two years before the campaign season heats up, alliances, scandals, and grassroots movements could still redraw the map.

So, who will you stand with?

(Image: Mayor Leni Robredo | Facebook; Inday Sara Duterte | Facebook)