Vice President Sara Duterte remains the frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race with 46 percent support, but Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo has surged to 35 percent, narrowing the gap to just 11 points, according to the latest OCTA Research Tugon ng Masa survey released Monday.

The non-commissioned survey was conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026, among 1,200 respondents nationwide. It asked: “If the May 2028 elections were held today, who will you vote for as President?” OCTA noted that 19 percent of respondents remained undecided, a bloc that could still significantly shape the race.

Sara Duterte’s support remains strongest in Mindanao, where she commands 88 percent, and in the Visayas, where she holds 53 percent. OCTA described this as a “broad and electorally efficient coalition” that reinforces her national reach. By socioeconomic class, Duterte leads across all groups, with her strongest backing among Class E voters at 56 percent.

Robredo, meanwhile, posted higher support in vote-rich areas, particularly the National Capital Region with 52 percent and Balance Luzon with 47 percent. OCTA emphasized that her support is concentrated in “politically strategic and vote-dense areas,” making her a competitive challenger despite Duterte’s southern stronghold. Robredo performed best among Class ABC voters at 39 percent and Class D at 36 percent, though she continues to trail among lower-income respondents.

“While VP Duterte continues to hold a clear national lead, the current margin is narrower than what OCTA observed in comparable commissioned TNM surveys over the past year, where VP Duterte led Mayor Robredo by margins ranging from roughly 20 to 30 percentage points,” OCTA said. “The Q1 2026 results therefore point to a more competitive and less settled electoral landscape entering 2026.”

Duterte announced in February that she will run for president in 2028, while Robredo has repeatedly said she will not seek a national post and instead plans to run for reelection as Naga City mayor. Despite her statements, her rising numbers suggest that many Filipinos still view her as a viable national contender.

The survey results highlight a tightening race that could reshape the political landscape in the coming years. With nearly one in five voters undecided, OCTA stressed that campaign strategies, alliances, and national developments will be crucial in determining whether Duterte can maintain her lead or if Robredo can continue to close the gap.

As the 2028 elections draw closer, the matchup between Duterte and Robredo is emerging as one of the most closely watched contests in Philippine politics, reflecting both regional divides and socioeconomic dynamics that will define the country’s future leadership.