Iran has issued a stark warning to global markets, declaring that oil prices could soar to $200 a barrel as escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts supply routes and threatens energy security worldwide. The statement comes amid intensifying clashes with U.S. and Israeli forces, raising fears of a prolonged crisis.

TEHRAN, March 12, 2026 — Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it will not allow “a litre of oil” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The closure of the waterway, which handles nearly 20 percent of global oil shipments, has already rattled markets and prompted emergency releases from strategic reserves.

The warning followed a series of attacks on merchant vessels in the Gulf, including the Thai-flagged cargo ship Mayuree Naree, which was engulfed in flames after being struck near Oman. Maritime security sources confirmed that Iran’s forces have targeted multiple ships, escalating tensions and raising the risk of a wider regional conflict.

Iranian military officials declared that any vessel linked to the United States, Israel, or their allies “will be considered a legitimate target.” This aggressive stance has fueled speculation that oil prices could skyrocket if the blockade continues. “Get ready for $200 a barrel,” Iranian commanders warned, underscoring their determination to leverage energy supplies as a weapon in the ongoing confrontation.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged member states to prepare for coordinated releases of oil reserves to stabilize markets. Already, 400 million barrels have been tapped from global reserves, but analysts caution that such measures may only provide temporary relief.

U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged the potential for soaring oil prices but insisted the disruption would be “short-term.” However, energy experts argue that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the impact could be long-lasting, driving inflation and destabilizing economies dependent on imported fuel.

Global stock markets have reacted nervously, with energy companies seeing sharp gains while airlines and shipping firms brace for higher operating costs. Economists warn that a sustained spike in oil prices could trigger a recession in vulnerable economies, particularly in Asia and Europe, where reliance on Middle Eastern crude remains high.

As the conflict intensifies, the world faces a precarious balance between military escalation and economic fallout. Iran’s warning of $200 oil is not just a threat but a signal of how deeply intertwined geopolitics and energy security have become. The coming weeks will determine whether diplomatic efforts can avert a full-scale crisis or if consumers worldwide must brace for unprecedented fuel costs.