Global oil prices are expected to remain elevated for a longer period, with analysts citing geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and shifting trade flows as key drivers. A new study highlights that the era of “lower for longer” has given way to “higher for longer,” reshaping energy markets worldwide.

Oil markets are facing a prolonged period of higher prices, according to recent research and industry analysis. The shift comes amid escalating geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, and ongoing sanctions that continue to reshape global energy trade. Brent crude, which had been trending downward earlier this year, has surged following renewed instability in the Persian Gulf, with experts warning that the elevated levels may persist well into 2027.

A report from J.P. Morgan Global Research noted that while supply-demand fundamentals remain soft, geopolitical risks are the “wild card” that could keep prices higher than expected. The bank projects Brent crude to average around $60 per barrel in 2026, but acknowledges that disruptions in Iran and sanctions on Russian oil are creating volatility.

“Sanctions on Russian oil are reshaping global trade flows, with barrels being redirected away from India and primarily toward China,” the study explained, underscoring how political decisions are altering traditional supply chains.

Forbes analysts emphasized that the narrative has shifted dramatically in recent weeks. “Just weeks ago, before the missiles and drones started flying over Iran and other Persian Gulf nations and their energy infrastructure, the prevailing narrative on oil prices among analysts was some version of ‘lower for longer,’” the report stated. Now, with military operations disrupting production and transport routes, the outlook has changed to “higher for longer.”

Market forecasts from LiteFinance also suggest that both WTI and Brent crude will remain volatile but elevated, with technical and fundamental analysis pointing to sustained upward pressure. The study highlights that global demand remains strong, particularly in Asia, while supply growth is being constrained by political instability and logistical challenges.

Energy experts warn that prolonged high oil prices could have ripple effects across economies. Consumers may face higher fuel costs, while industries reliant on petroleum products could see increased expenses. Governments are expected to respond with strategic reserves and alternative energy investments, but analysts caution that such measures may only partially offset the impact.

The consensus among researchers and market watchers is clear: oil prices are unlikely to return to the “lower for longer” era anytime soon. Instead, the global economy must brace for a sustained period of elevated energy costs, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical conflict, sanctions, and shifting trade dynamics.