MARCH 15, 2026 — The Philippines is once again staring at the edge of an energy cliff — and this time, the drop looks steeper than ever. Oil industry insiders are sounding the alarm: by late April, our fuel supply could be dangerously thin, and by May, pumps across the country may start running dry.

At the heart of this looming crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a global chokepoint now rattled by escalating conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. With foreign suppliers canceling contracts and exporting nations shutting their taps, the Philippines finds itself caught in the crossfire of geopolitics.

The Department of Energy (DOE) and Department of Finance (DOF) scrambled to convene an urgent meeting on March 15 with oil executives. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin and Finance Secretary Frederick Go reportedly pressed industry leaders for solutions. But the mood was grim. 

One source bluntly warned: “We’re actually lucky if we can stretch supply until the last week of April.”

That warning isn’t just rhetoric. Price hikes are already being staggered this week — ₱23.90 per liter for diesel, ₱16.60 for gasoline, and ₱6.90 for kerosene. For ordinary Filipinos, that means jeepney fares, food deliveries, and even the cost of cooking gas could skyrocket overnight.

Furthermore, Thailand, one of our critical suppliers of finished petroleum products, has already announced an export ban. That cuts off another lifeline, leaving us scrambling for alternatives in a tightening global market.

Industry players are united in their anxiety. 

“Most contracts beyond April were already canceled, so the country is hurtling toward unavoidable fuel shortages if the war drags on; we’re very close to that perilous energy cliff already,” a source from an independent oil firm emphasized.

The government insists we have two to three months of inventory, but insiders say that’s wishful thinking. If the supply window shrinks as feared, the ripple effects will be brutal: transport paralysis, stalled manufacturing, and a drag on the entire economy.

For the masses, this isn’t just about fuel — it’s now about survival. Every peso added to the pump translates to higher food prices, more expensive commutes, and tighter household budgets. For businesses, it’s about whether trucks can deliver goods, whether factories can keep machines running, and whether the economy can keep moving at all.

Will decisive action come in time to save the economy, or are we about to witness the Philippines grind to a halt?

(Image: Philippine News Agency)