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Analyst warns China using gray zone tactics to sway Philippines

Margret Dianne FerminIpinost noong 2026-03-22 09:42:43 Analyst warns China using gray zone tactics to sway Philippines

China is running massive influence operations in the Philippines that go far beyond the West Philippine Sea, according to maritime security expert Ray Powell of the Sealight Foundation. He warned that Beijing’s strategy is not only about controlling disputed waters but also about shaping public opinion and normalizing Chinese presence as a “permanent fact of life.”

Powell made the remarks during a forum on March 21, 2026, where he revealed that Chinese influence activities are being tracked across multiple fronts. These include media campaigns, educational institutions, and urban centers, all designed to sway Filipino sentiment in favor of Beijing. He explained that China’s goal is to convince Filipinos to stop resisting and eventually accept Chinese control as inevitable.

The Sealight Foundation has been monitoring what Powell described as “gray zone activities” — operations that fall short of open warfare but are meant to undermine sovereignty and weaken resistance. These activities allegedly involve organizations linked to the Chinese Communist Party, which are believed to be working to influence narratives in the Philippines.

Powell stressed that Chinese aggression is not limited to maritime patrols or the deployment of vessels in the West Philippine Sea. The Philippine Navy recently tracked 48 Chinese vessels in contested waters, but Powell cautioned that the bigger threat lies in Beijing’s ability to manipulate perceptions on land.

He also pointed out that China is using schools and media outlets to sway public sentiment, a tactic that could gradually erode national unity on the issue of territorial defense. “Beijing’s goal is not merely to control the reefs and shoals of the West Philippine Sea, it is to convince the people of the Philippines to stop resisting,” Powell said.

Security analysts believe these influence operations are part of a broader strategy to weaken Philippine resolve and reduce reliance on alliances with countries like the United States and Japan. By shaping narratives and embedding influence in civilian institutions, China aims to secure long-term strategic advantages without resorting to direct military confrontation.

The revelations have sparked concern among policymakers and civil society groups, who argue that the Philippines must strengthen its information security and counter-disinformation measures. Experts recommend closer monitoring of foreign-linked organizations, stricter regulation of media partnerships, and enhanced public awareness campaigns to resist manipulation.

With tensions in the West Philippine Sea already high, Powell’s warning underscores the need for vigilance not only at sea but also in the information space. If left unchecked, China's influence operations could reshape public opinion and weaken the Philippines’ ability to defend its sovereignty in the long run.