DECEMBER 30, 2025 — China’s BYD is on track to unseat Tesla as the world’s top electric vehicle maker, with 2025 sales figures showing a decisive lead that signals a shift in the global auto industry.

By late November, BYD had already sold 2.07 million battery-powered cars, far ahead of Tesla’s 1.22 million units reported through September. Analysts expect Tesla’s year-end tally to reach about 1.65 million — well below BYD’s pace and marking a 7.7 percent decline from last year. Deutsche Bank projects an even sharper drop, estimating Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales at just 405,000 vehicles, with steep declines in North America and Europe.

The American automaker’s brief surge in September, nearly half a million units in three months, was largely driven by a U.S. tax credit that expired under legislation backed by President Donald Trump. Without that incentive, demand has cooled, leaving Tesla vulnerable to rivals. 

“We believe Tesla will see some weakness on deliveries,” said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities.

BYD, meanwhile, is pressing its advantage abroad. Fitch Ratings’ Jing Yang noted the company is “one of the pioneers to establish overseas production capacity and supply chains for EVs,” adding that its global diversification could help it withstand tariff battles. 

Europe has already imposed duties on Chinese imports, but BYD is building a plant in Hungary to secure its foothold.

When China drives, the world follows

The bigger question now is how consumers and governments will respond to China’s growing dominance in the EV sector. Will buyers embrace cheaper Chinese models despite political tensions and tariff barriers? Or will national policies tilt the market back toward Western brands? 

Many are wondering whether the future of mobility will be shaped in Shenzhen rather than Silicon Valley.

Tesla is not standing still, though. The company is betting on autonomous technology, with plans to launch its robotaxi “Cybercab” in 2026 and expand its full self-driving features. Lower-priced versions of the Model 3 and Model Y are also expected to attract new buyers. 

“As Tesla really begins to roll out eyes-off features … that should generate more demand,” said TD Cowen’s Michaeli.

The race between BYD and Tesla is more than a corporate rivalry — it is a test of how global industries will adapt to China’s rising power.

(Image: BYD Cars Philippines)