Manila — Vice President Sara Duterte remains the top choice for the 2028 presidential race in the latest OCTA Research survey, but her lead has narrowed significantly as former Vice President and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo surged to second place. 

Duterte scored 33 percent, while Robredo climbed to 21 percent, cutting the gap to just 12 points.

The OCTA Research Tugon ng Masa survey conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026, revealed that Duterte’s preference rating dropped five points from 38 percent in the previous quarter. Despite facing impeachment complaints and controversies over alleged misuse of confidential funds, she continues to lead early presidential preferences.

Robredo, meanwhile, posted the largest gain among all potential candidates, rising by 13 points from 8 percent in late 2025. Her surge narrowed Duterte’s lead from a 30-point margin last year to only 12 points in the first quarter of 2026. 

“While the narrowing gap is driven largely by Robredo’s substantial increase, Duterte’s decline of 5 points is close to the survey’s ±3% margin of error, and should therefore be interpreted with appropriate caution,” OCTA noted.

Trailing behind the two were Manila Mayor Isko Moreno with 10 percent, Senator Raffy Tulfo with 9 percent, and Senator Bam Aquino with 4 percent. Other personalities accounted for 20 percent, indicating that voter preferences beyond the top five remain fragmented.

The survey, which interviewed 1,200 respondents nationwide, has a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level. Subnational estimates for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao carry a ±6 percent margin of error.

Robredo has previously said she may not run for a national post in 2028 and could instead seek a second term as Naga City mayor. Duterte, on the other hand, continues to face political challenges, including impeachment proceedings and allegations of suspicious financial transactions linked to her and her husband.

The results highlight shifting voter sentiment as the 2028 elections draw closer. While Duterte remains the frontrunner, Robredo’s momentum suggests a competitive race ahead, with the middle ground of undecided voters and fragmented support for other candidates likely to play a decisive role.