APRIL 30, 2026 — The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) has sounded the alarm: around 1.4 million Filipino households could slide into poverty if the government fails to cushion the blow of the oil crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict. Rising fuel costs are already squeezing families, and experts warn that the “near poor” — those just above the poverty line — are most at risk.

At a Senate hearing this week, Social Welfare Secretary Rex Gatchalian revealed that government simulations, backed by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and the Asian Development Bank, show 1.4 million households could become “new poor” by July if no intervention is made. 

Senator Sherwin Gatchalian added that over 400,000 households may fall into the “near poor” category, underscoring how fragile the middle class has become.

The DSWD is targeting 7.5 million households for support:

• 3.5 million 4Ps beneficiaries
• 1.5 million poor households under CBMS
• 2.5 million near-poor families, including minimum wage earners registered with the SSS

The agency estimates ₱74 billion will be needed to restore the spending power of the bottom 30% of households. 

“Yung mga amount na pinag-uusapan namin ay kina-calculate namin to make sure na maibalik namin yung spending power nila na nag-diminish lalong lalo na yung bottom 30 na decile,” Rex explained.

The oil crisis has already pushed diesel prices to record highs of ₱103–₱117 per liter, hitting jeepney drivers, farmers, and small businesses hardest. PIDS warns that poverty could rise from 13.2% in 2025 to 14.4% in 2026, reversing years of progress. Under severe scenarios, poverty could spike to 16.3% nationwide and 22.5% in rural areas.

Economist Jose Ramon Albert of PIDS stressed that the shock is “deeply regressive”: poor households lose 16.2% of their annual income in real purchasing power, compared to just 3.4% for the richest households. He warned that rising oil prices ripple through food costs.

“Pag tumaas ang presyo ng langis, tataas din ang presyo ng bigas, isda, karne, gulay — lahat ng mga pangunahing pangangailangan,” he pointed out.

(If oil prices rise, the prices of rice, fish, meat, vegetables — all basic needs — will also rise.)

This is about jeepney fares climbing, palengke prices spiking, and families cutting back on meals. The government’s challenge is to act fast with targeted aid, because blanket fuel subsidies often benefit wealthier households more. Experts say cash transfers to the poorest and near-poor families are the most effective way to prevent a deeper crisis.

How much longer can we keep absorbing the shock of rising oil prices before poverty becomes our permanent reality?

(Image: REX Gatchalian | Facebook)